Re: Fascinating -- The Decline of Empirical Truth

Yes, this article is a good reminder to be "humble" when making claims of truth. Nonetheless, the last time I checked, algebra works the same in Africa as it does in the United States...and the buildings we build rely upon it to stand up.

I would rather error on the side of looking for empirical evidence, than allow everyone to simply claim "not everything that is true can be proven". It's tough to have a conversation if you can't find a common basis for communication. 

Or, maybe what I just said is the opposite of what I wrote...and I agreed with what you said :)

On Fri, Jan 28, 2011 at 8:55 PM, Michael <mtp1032@comcast.net> wrote:

What would you think of a scientific experiment -- rigorously conducted, scrupulously reviewed by skeptical competitors, and replicated in labs around the world -- whose conclusions, ten years post experiment, were no longer true? Here's a real example to focus your thinking: in the early 90s pharmaceutical companies developed a new class of anti-psychotic drugs (e.g., Zyprexa, Abilify, Seroquel, and others). At the time, these drugs constituted a wonderful and almost miraculous breakthrough. They clearly demonstrated a dramatic, real decrease in patients' psychiatric symptoms.

 

By 2007, however, something very strange had happened -- the drugs had lost much of their effectiveness. When the original experiments were replicated the therapeutic results were only half as effective! Somehow the "truth" that these drugs were effective had declined. This phenomena, that scientific truth declines over time, seems to be wide-spread, encompassing scientific disciplines as diverse as psychology, biology, particle physics, and even parapsychology. Jonah Lehrer, in an article in the December 13th New Yorker, entitled The Truth Wears Off, describes this puzzling phenomenon. But Mr. Lehrer's last sentence made me sit up and take notice: 

" Just because an idea is true doesn't mean it can be proved. And just because an idea can be proved doesn't mean it's true. When the experiments are done, we still have to choose what to believe."

This idea reminds me of the strange effects observed at the quantum level, for example the loss of cause-and-effect. Maybe there is more to life and physical reality than can be explained empirically... Hell, even if life could be explained empirically, would the explanation hold water ten years from now?

 

--
Jeff Reed, PhD
Rivers Bend Lodge Montana
425.246.0025 (cell)
www.riversbendlodge.com

Fascinating -- The Decline of Empirical Truth

What would you think of a scientific experiment -- rigorously conducted, scrupulously reviewed by skeptical competitors, and replicated in labs around the world -- whose conclusions, ten years post experiment, were no longer true? Here's a real example to focus your thinking: in the early 90s pharmaceutical companies developed a new class of anti-psychotic drugs (e.g., Zyprexa, Abilify, Seroquel, and others). At the time, these drugs constituted a wonderful and almost miraculous breakthrough. They clearly demonstrated a dramatic, real decrease in patients' psychiatric symptoms.

 

By 2007, however, something very strange had happened -- the drugs had lost much of their effectiveness. When the original experiments were replicated the therapeutic results were only half as effective! Somehow the "truth" that these drugs were effective had declined. This phenomena, that scientific truth declines over time, seems to be wide-spread, encompassing scientific disciplines as diverse as psychology, biology, particle physics, and even parapsychology. Jonah Lehrer, in an article in the December 13th New Yorker, entitled The Truth Wears Off, describes this puzzling phenomenon. But Mr. Lehrer's last sentence made me sit up and take notice: 

" Just because an idea is true doesn't mean it can be proved. And just because an idea can be proved doesn't mean it's true. When the experiments are done, we still have to choose what to believe."

This idea reminds me of the strange effects observed at the quantum level, for example the loss of cause-and-effect. Maybe there is more to life and physical reality than can be explained empirically... Hell, even if life could be explained empirically, would the explanation hold water ten years from now?